Weather disease intelligence

Crop disease risk intelligence

Weather-driven risk for canola, cereals, lentils, and chickpeas across fields and stations.

Ready

Dashboard guide

How disease risk intelligence works

Use the dashboard to identify disease-conducive conditions and prioritize field scouting.

What this dashboard answers

It estimates how favourable current and forecast conditions are for crop disease. It does not confirm that a pathogen is present and it does not make an automatic fungicide decision.

Start here

From weather to a scouting decision

  1. 1
    Select the location and weather source

    Use the regional forecast, or upload a local station export to add nearby observed weather.

  2. 2
    Check station freshness and correction settings

    Station distance, age, completeness, and sensor correction affect evidence confidence—not the underlying biological risk.

  3. 3
    Enter the crop context

    Crop stage gates the model. Canopy, susceptibility, previous crop, and field history refine the weather baseline.

  4. 4
    Add dated field evidence when available

    Petal tests and scouting observations apply from their observation date forward. They never rewrite earlier risk.

  5. 5
    Review the trend, map, and drivers together

    Use higher-risk periods and fields to plan scouting and confirmatory sampling. Open a field to see the nearest usable station and confidence explanation.

Read these separately

Risk is not confidence

Risk

How favourable conditions are

A 0–100 disease-pressure index based on crop eligibility, weather, field context, and any correctly dated evidence. It is decision support, not a laboratory diagnosis.

Confidence

How strong the available evidence is

Reflects station proximity, freshness, completeness, coverage, and validation strength. Low confidence is a reason to scout or sample—not a reason to lower biological risk.

Risk describes disease-conducive conditions. Confidence describes the strength and proximity of the available data.

Disease models

What each calculation considers

Canola

Sclerotinia stem rot

Flowering stage, canopy density, field history, rainfall, wet hours, humidity, and temperature. Petal-test results can adjust the weather-only baseline from the sample date forward.

Cereals

Fusarium head blight

Wheat flowering or barley head-emergence stage, susceptibility, previous crop, simultaneous warm and humid infection hours, rainfall, humidity, and temperature.

Pulses

Lentil anthracnose & chickpea ascochyta

Crop stage, moisture conditions, temperature suitability, limited field-history modifiers, and dated scouting evidence. These models remain provisional until locally validated.

Field map

How to read field colours and outlines

LowLess favourable conditions MonitorCloser field review HighPrioritize scouting Not modeledCrop or model unavailable

A dashed field outline means confidence is low. The fill colour still shows biological risk. Station influence is limited by the selected radius, and station data must be complete and no more than three days old to be treated as current local evidence.

Use responsibly

What to verify before acting

  • Confirm crop and growth stage in the field.
  • Check the date, source, and freshness of weather and scouting evidence.
  • Use material risk signals to prioritize scouting or confirmatory sampling.
  • Review product labels, resistance management, crop stage, and local agronomic advice separately.

Weather source: Open-Meteo and uploaded local station data. Model assumptions and calibration status are documented in the methodology sections at the bottom of the dashboard.

Scenario and crop models

Current disease outlook

Set the weather source and crop context, then use the trend and field map to prioritize scouting.

Location

Technical sensor correction Optional

No correction applied. Raw uploaded readings are used after data-quality checks.

Regina, Saskatchewan

Using Open-Meteo weather data.

Canola

Current sclerotinia risk i
- Waiting for weather

Petal test

Average used by model: 0%

The model uses the average of entered samples from the test date forward while keeping the weather-only baseline visible on the chart.

Wheat and barley

Wheat FHB i
- Waiting for weather
Barley FHB i
- Waiting for weather
FHB infection hours i
- Temp >=15C and RH >=80%
Forecast risk peak i
- Updates after calculation

Wheat stage

Stage window pending

Barley stage

Stage window pending

Pulses

Lentil anthracnose i
- Waiting for weather
Confidence —
Chickpea ascochyta i
- Waiting for weather
Confidence —

Risk trend

i

Field-adjusted is the bright dashed canola line after an infected-petal test is applied from the test date forward.

Weather-only baseline is the muted green canola line before the petal-test adjustment. With infected petals entered, the adjusted line should be at or above this baseline, with a bigger gap when weather also favors disease development.

The thin vertical dashed line marks the sample collection date used for the petal test.

How risk is calculated

The dashboard calculates a 0-100 weather risk index. It is not a disease diagnosis or a spray recommendation; it is a decision-support signal for scouting and fungicide timing discussions.

Canola sclerotinia

The index weighs canola flowering stage, canopy density, sclerotinia field history, rainfall in the last 7 and 14 days, wet hours in the last 48 hours and 7 days, relative humidity, and average temperature. Stage weighting now follows the published 20-50% bloom risk window, with peak susceptibility around 20-30% bloom.

If an infected-petal test is entered, the chart keeps the weather-only baseline and adds a field-adjusted canola risk from the test date forward. High infected-petal results increase risk most when wet weather is already favorable for disease development.

Wheat and barley FHB

Wheat and barley use separate dated stage curves. Wheat susceptibility peaks around early flowering and remains biologically relevant into grain filling. Barley is keyed to head emergence because spring barley flowers while the head is still in the boot; its main assessment window begins as the head emerges. An uneven-crop setting widens the stage window by three days in both directions. The stage curves are provisional and are applied independently from the weather signal, variety susceptibility, previous crop, and residue.

The weather signal emphasizes simultaneous FHB infection hours when temperature is at least 15C and RH is at least 80%, plus rain, wet hours, humidity, temperature, and precipitation probability. Stage observation dates move the crop window across the historical and forecast chart instead of applying today's stage to every date. Sources: Saskatchewan FHB guidance and NDSU Extension.

Lentil anthracnose and chickpea ascochyta

The local pulse prototype combines crop stage with one moisture component built from recent wet hours, rain, and humidity, plus temperature suitability and limited field-history modifiers. Positive scouting evidence applies only from its observation date forward. Risk and confidence remain separate.

Lentil anthracnose — favorable development conditions

  • The strongest disease development is associated with warm, moist weather: approximately 20-24C together with rain, high humidity, and 18-24 hours of leaf wetness. A dense canopy can extend the humid period.
  • Symptoms are commonly first noticed from the 10-12 node stage through early flowering and may become visible about 7-8 days after infection.
  • The pathogen survives as microsclerotia on infected lentil residue for up to four years. Rain splash can move spores from residue and existing lesions, allowing repeated infection cycles during a wet season.

Chickpea ascochyta — favorable development conditions

  • Chickpeas can be infected from the seedling stage through flowering and pod development. Repeated disease cycles are favored by adequate moisture and temperatures around 20-25C.
  • Conidia spread by rain splash; even small showers can move them to new plant tissue. Visible symptoms may develop about 4-6 days after infection.
  • Infected seed and chickpea residue are inoculum sources, while wind-borne ascospores can travel several miles. Field history therefore modifies risk but cannot prove that a previously clean field is free of exposure.

These are biologically favorable conditions, not confirmation that infection has occurred. Confirm material signals through field scouting or laboratory testing. Sources: Saskatchewan Pulse Growers — lentil anthracnose and Saskatchewan Pulse Growers — chickpea ascochyta.

Technical sensor correction

Provider is metadata only. Temperature and RH corrections are applied before weather features are calculated only when explicitly enabled. Their basis, date, offsets, and reference note are recorded separately from disease-model coefficients.

Biological model calibration

The current disease indices are provisional normalized pressure scores, not locally calibrated probabilities. Sensor corrections do not change biological coefficients or justify a calibrated-model claim.

Risk bands

Below 45 is low risk, 45-69 means monitor closely, and 70+ indicates high weather pressure. Always confirm crop stage and field conditions before a fungicide decision.

Lines show a 0-100 favorable-condition index. Yellow means monitor closely; red means high modeled pressure and a targeted field check.

Monitor conditions Highly favorable Forecast
Favorable-condition windows will appear after weather loads.
— —

Local prototype

Field disease risk map

Real field boundaries are ranked using crop, model risk, and nearby Crop Intelligence stations.

Loading fields and stations…
Low Monitor High Not modeled Low confidence
Add more farms and fields

Add Polygon or MultiPolygon GeoJSON files to raw-data/spatial/fields. Each feature should include farm, field, field_id, and crop. Run the spatial data builder to include them without editing the application code.

Risk drivers

Higher-risk days

Date Rain 7d FHB 72h FHB 7d Scler. Wheat FHB Barley FHB Lentil anth. Chickpea asc.

Methodology

This is an operational weather index, not a diagnosis. For sclerotinia it weighs canola flowering stage using the 20-50% bloom risk window, canopy density, 7-14 day rainfall, high-humidity hours, and temperature. Infected-petal test results adjust canola risk from the test date forward while preserving the weather-only baseline on the chart. For Fusarium head blight it weighs crop stage, variety susceptibility, previous crop, FHB infection hours where temperature is at least 15C and RH is at least 80% at the same time, rainfall, relative humidity, and temperature before and during flowering. Uploaded station data can receive a separately documented technical sensor correction before the risk index is calculated. The local pulse prototype adds lentil anthracnose and chickpea ascochyta using crop stage, a combined moisture signal, temperature suitability, field history, and dated scouting evidence. Its confidence score is displayed separately and capped until local validation is available.

Weather source: Open-Meteo. Agronomic thresholds are based on public guidance from the Canola Council of Canada, NDSU/USWBSI, Saskatchewan Pulse Growers, and university extension materials. For a production decision tool, calibrate the coefficients against local field history, varieties, fungicide records, and scouting observations.

Chart shading uses provisional dashboard bands: 45-69 is a monitoring window and 70-100 is a highly favorable window. Consecutive qualifying days are grouped, and the featured interval is ranked by cumulative model pressure. Today is shown as forecast because its weather record is incomplete.

Biological model calibration status

These statuses describe validation of the disease formulas. They are independent from technical temperature/RH sensor corrections.