Weather disease intelligence

Crop disease risk intelligence

Weather-driven risk for canola, cereals, lentils, and chickpeas across fields and stations.

Location

Ready

Station calibration

Offsets are applied to uploaded station readings before risk is calculated.

Regina, Saskatchewan

Using Open-Meteo weather data.

Canola

Current sclerotinia risk i
- Waiting for weather

Petal test

Average used by model: 0%

The model uses the average of entered samples from the test date forward while keeping the weather-only baseline visible on the chart.

Wheat and barley

Wheat FHB i
- Waiting for weather
Barley FHB i
- Waiting for weather
FHB infection hours i
- Temp >=15C and RH >=80%
Forecast risk peak i
- Updates after calculation

Pulses

Lentil anthracnose i
- Waiting for weather
Confidence —
Chickpea ascochyta i
- Waiting for weather
Confidence —

Risk trend

i

Field-adjusted is the bright dashed canola line after an infected-petal test is applied from the test date forward.

Weather-only baseline is the muted green canola line before the petal-test adjustment. With infected petals entered, the adjusted line should be at or above this baseline, with a bigger gap when weather also favors disease development.

The thin vertical dashed line marks the sample collection date used for the petal test.

How risk is calculated

The dashboard calculates a 0-100 weather risk index. It is not a disease diagnosis or a spray recommendation; it is a decision-support signal for scouting and fungicide timing discussions.

Canola sclerotinia

The index weighs canola flowering stage, canopy density, sclerotinia field history, rainfall in the last 7 and 14 days, wet hours in the last 48 hours and 7 days, relative humidity, and average temperature. Stage weighting now follows the published 20-50% bloom risk window, with peak susceptibility around 20-30% bloom.

If an infected-petal test is entered, the chart keeps the weather-only baseline and adds a field-adjusted canola risk from the test date forward. High infected-petal results increase risk most when wet weather is already favorable for disease development.

Wheat and barley FHB

The index weighs heading/flowering stage, variety susceptibility, previous crop and residue, and especially FHB infection hours when temperature is at least 15C and RH is at least 80% at the same time. It also considers 7-day rainfall, wet hours, relative humidity, and precipitation probability.

Lentil anthracnose and chickpea ascochyta

The local pulse prototype combines crop stage with one moisture component built from recent wet hours, rain, and humidity, plus temperature suitability and limited field-history modifiers. Positive scouting evidence applies only from its observation date forward. Risk and confidence remain separate.

Lentil anthracnose — favorable development conditions

  • The strongest disease development is associated with warm, moist weather: approximately 20-24C together with rain, high humidity, and 18-24 hours of leaf wetness. A dense canopy can extend the humid period.
  • Symptoms are commonly first noticed from the 10-12 node stage through early flowering and may become visible about 7-8 days after infection.
  • The pathogen survives as microsclerotia on infected lentil residue for up to four years. Rain splash can move spores from residue and existing lesions, allowing repeated infection cycles during a wet season.

Chickpea ascochyta — favorable development conditions

  • Chickpeas can be infected from the seedling stage through flowering and pod development. Repeated disease cycles are favored by adequate moisture and temperatures around 20-25C.
  • Conidia spread by rain splash; even small showers can move them to new plant tissue. Visible symptoms may develop about 4-6 days after infection.
  • Infected seed and chickpea residue are inoculum sources, while wind-borne ascospores can travel several miles. Field history therefore modifies risk but cannot prove that a previously clean field is free of exposure.

These are biologically favorable conditions, not confirmation that infection has occurred. Confirm material signals through field scouting or laboratory testing. Sources: Saskatchewan Pulse Growers — lentil anthracnose and Saskatchewan Pulse Growers — chickpea ascochyta.

Station calibration

Uploaded station readings can be corrected with temperature and RH offsets. This lets Pessl, RealmFive, or other station data be adjusted before risk and infection-hour calculations are run.

Risk bands

Below 45 is low risk, 45-69 means monitor closely, and 70+ indicates high weather pressure. Always confirm crop stage and field conditions before a fungicide decision.

Lines show a 0-100 favorable-condition index. Yellow means monitor closely; red means high modeled pressure and a targeted field check.

Monitor conditions Highly favorable Forecast
Favorable-condition windows will appear after weather loads.
— —

Local prototype

Field disease risk map

Real field boundaries are ranked using crop, model risk, and nearby Crop Intelligence stations.

Loading fields and stations…
Low Monitor High Not modeled Low confidence
Add more farms and fields

Add Polygon or MultiPolygon GeoJSON files to raw-data/spatial/fields. Each feature should include farm, field, field_id, and crop. Run the spatial data builder to include them without editing the application code.

Risk drivers

Higher-risk days

Date Rain 7d FHB 72h FHB 7d Scler. Wheat FHB Barley FHB Lentil anth. Chickpea asc.

Methodology

This is an operational weather index, not a diagnosis. For sclerotinia it weighs canola flowering stage using the 20-50% bloom risk window, canopy density, 7-14 day rainfall, high-humidity hours, and temperature. Infected-petal test results adjust canola risk from the test date forward while preserving the weather-only baseline on the chart. For Fusarium head blight it weighs crop stage, variety susceptibility, previous crop, FHB infection hours where temperature is at least 15C and RH is at least 80% at the same time, rainfall, relative humidity, and temperature before and during flowering. Uploaded station data can be calibrated with temperature and RH offsets before the risk index is calculated. The local pulse prototype adds lentil anthracnose and chickpea ascochyta using crop stage, a combined moisture signal, temperature suitability, field history, and dated scouting evidence. Its confidence score is displayed separately and capped until local validation is available.

Weather source: Open-Meteo. Agronomic thresholds are based on public guidance from the Canola Council of Canada, NDSU/USWBSI, Saskatchewan Pulse Growers, and university extension materials. For a production decision tool, calibrate the coefficients against local field history, varieties, fungicide records, and scouting observations.

Chart shading uses provisional dashboard bands: 45-69 is a monitoring window and 70-100 is a highly favorable window. Consecutive qualifying days are grouped, and the featured interval is ranked by cumulative model pressure. Today is shown as forecast because its weather record is incomplete.